Savasta L.

Статьи автора

Oil or blood? The determinants of insurgency outcom in Syria and Iraq

Выпуск №5 от 22.05.2019

The study of insurgency outcomes in oil-producing states, in the Middle East, has been slightly explored by past scholars. Nowadays it is becoming increasingly important to understand why different groups can be more successful than others and what are the determinants that shape insurgency outcomes.

For this analysis I have selected four case studies: ISIS (in Iraq and Syria), Free Syrian Army (FSA), Iraqi Kurdistan Region (KRG – PUK) and Syrian Kurds (Rojava region, PYD and YPG), in the period from 2012 to 2018. This four groups have been compared because they offer a complete vision of all possible models of insurgent groups, that are present in middle eastern oilproducing states.

Four common key factors have been found: 1) management of natural resources, 2) management of territory under control, 3) military capacity and 4) incrementation of group’s demography, and the sum of each factor determines if the group was successful and when. The highest will be the group’s capacity in each of the four factors, the highest will be the level of success.

The peculiarity of this study, based on the calculation of the level of success, offer a new model that can be applied to review past conflicts, develop future insurgency/anti-insurgency campaigns and forecast future conflicts in oil-producing states.

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To be for fighting & To fight for being (How identity and the sense of belonging can influence the performance of the Syrian Kurds’ military groups)

Выпуск №3 от 24.03.2022

The purpose of this article is to examine how the concept of identity and the sense of belonging can shape the performance and increase the capacity of a military group. At first the text outlines the theoretical framework of what is the sense of belonging and how this is strictly connected with the notion of identity by looking at previous literature. Afterward the paper defines how these factors can cause and bring to a different military capacity, when it is formed by representatives of a single ethnic group.

The relevance of this work is the possibility of having a clearer understanding of military efficiency by combining theories of two sciences: political science and anthropology. Previous works didn’t give a complete vision and understanding of it because they were not combining the theories of these two disciplines, leaving a not clear result in their research. Furthermore, for proving the theoretical framework developed in the text, a case study is chosen: the Syrian Kurds, specifically two groups, Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat (YPD) and Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Using a qualitative research method, the groups are exposed, and it is outlined how the theoretical idea of the paper functions when looking at physical examples. The combination of primary sources and interviews with UN staff operating in Syria during 2012-2016, allowed a more complete and objective vision of the groups’ capacity and the reality that the Syrian Kurds were living. The choice fell on these exponents because they manifest each of the theoretical points touched in the research (culture, sense of belonging and identity).

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