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Assessing the Impact of US-Iran Confrontation on Middle East Security
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Assessing the Impact of US-Iran Confrontation on Middle East Security
Annotation
PII
S207054760011667-0-
DOI
10.18254/S207054760011667-0
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Nikolay Bobkin 
ORCID: 0000-0002-0009-8699
Occupation: Senior Research Fellow
Affiliation: Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Edition
Issue 3
Abstract

The main content of the article is an analysis of the policy of the D. Trump administration regarding the Iranian regime. Key events in the confrontation are identified and described, the reasons for the aggravation of confrontation are hidden and an analysis of its consequences for the security of the Middle East is presented. The conclusion is substantiated that the unilateral US exit from the JCPOA became the cause of the aggravation of relations. It is concluded that the policy of "maximum pressure" has not changed Iranian behavior; Iran is able to withstand the effects of sanctions and return to nuclear research for military purposes. It has been shown that the escalation of tension with Iran is the main cause of serious damage to relations between the United States and its European allies. Considerable attention is paid to the analysis of international reaction and the consequences of the assassination of General Suleimani. According to the author, the risks of war are obvious; however, after the moderate reaction of the D. Trump administration to Iranian missile attacks on US bases in Iraq, it does not seem inevitable. Despite the fact that proponents of the hard line dominate both in Washington and in Tehran, and trust has completely collapsed, neither side wants a war. The Trump administration’s policy is based on the assumption that maximum pressure will either force Tehran’s regime to accept US demands or cause the regime’s collapse. This assessment is rather a vain hope than a realistic perspective. Rather, a “maximum pressure” policy could strengthen the influence of hardline supporters in Tehran who would not reconcile with the United States.

Keywords
Iran, D. Trump administration, JCPOA, IRGC, the assassination of General Suleimani, Iraq, Persian Gulf
Received
01.07.2020
Date of publication
25.09.2020
Number of purchasers
25
Views
3113
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0.0 (0 votes)
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S207054760011667-0-1 Дата внесения правок в статью - 18.09.2020
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