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Оценка влияния конфронтации между США и Ираном на безопасность Ближнего Востока
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Оценка влияния конфронтации между США и Ираном на безопасность Ближнего Востока
Аннотация
Код статьи
S207054760011667-0-
DOI
10.18254/S207054760011667-0
Тип публикации
Статья
Статус публикации
Опубликовано
Авторы
Бобкин Николай Николаевич 
ORCID: 0000-0002-0009-8699
Должность: Старший научный сотрудник
Аффилиация: Институт США и Канады РАН
Адрес: Российская Федерация, Москва
Выпуск
Выпуск № 3
Аннотация

Основное содержание исследования составляет анализ политики администрации Д. Трампа в отношении иранского режима. Выделяются и описываются ключевые события в противостоянии, скрываются причины обострения конфронтации и приводится анализ её последствий для безопасности Ближнего Востока. Обосновывается вывод о том, что причиной обострения отношений стал односторонний выход США из СВПД. Сделано заключение, что политика «максимального давления» не изменила иранское поведение, Иран в состоянии выдержать воздействие санкций и вернуться к ядерным исследованиям с военными целями. Показано, что эскалация напряжённости с Ираном является главной причиной серьёзного ущерба для отношений между США и их европейскими союзниками. Значительное внимание уделено анализу международной реакции и последствиям убийства генерала Сулеймани. По мнению автора, риски войны очевидны, однако после сдержанной реакции администрации Д. Трампа на иранские ракетные удары по базам США в Ираке, не представляются неизбежными. Несмотря на то, что сторонники жёсткой линии доминируют как в Вашингтоне, так и в Тегеране, и доверие полностью разрушилось, ни одна из сторон не хочет войны.

Ключевые слова
Иран, администрация Д. Трампа, СВПД, КСИР, убийство генерала Сулеймани, Ирак, Персидский залив
Классификатор
Получено
01.07.2020
Дата публикации
25.09.2020
Всего подписок
25
Всего просмотров
3111
Оценка читателей
0.0 (0 голосов)
Другие версии
S207054760011667-0-1 Дата внесения исправлений в статью - 18.09.2020
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