2020 Crisis in the USA: Test for Economic Model
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2020 Crisis in the USA: Test for Economic Model
Annotation
PII
S207054760011707-4-
Publication type
Article
Status
Published
Authors
Victor Supyan 
Occupation: Chef Research Fallow
Affiliation: Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Address: Russian Federation, Moscow
Edition
Abstract

The papers aims to show an analysis of reasons and consequences of economic crisis in the USA, started in Spring of 2020. The article reviews the reasons of the crisis which reflected in accumulation of internal economic disproportions and in spreading out coronavirus pandemic in the USA and worldwide.

It is shown that the preconditions of crisis began to be manifested already in 2019 after unusually long 11 years period of cyclical economic growth. The continuing growth gave some grounds to have finally not deep but “soft” economic downfall. But the beginning of the pandemic led to sharp economic crisis – reflected in downfall of GDP, decrease of domestic investment, decline in consumer demand and in large-scale growth of unemployment. As a result the so called double crisis began to be not only cyclical, but connected to government policy directed to stop the pandemic and to limit economic activity. The government conducting the policy of social distancing and self-isolation took the unprecedented actions to support population and businesses, accounting of 3 trn dollars.

The current trends in economic development and in pandemic situation give no grounds for optimistic forecasts in overcoming today’s crisis. Two upcoming years will demonstrate downfall in GDP (6%) or slow economic growth. The consumer demand and private investment will remain stagnant, unemployment will stay on the level of 10-11%.

The article also reviews the differences in approaches of two presidential candidates how to resist economic crisis and to economic development in general. If Mr. Trump stands for private and market economic forces, another candidate – Mr. Biden - follows traditional democratic approach relying more on the government.

The author also describes possible long-term consequences of the economic crisis. He forecasts the growing role of distant work in offices, trade and education. It is expected that the government may increase its role in the healthcare system.

 

Keywords
USA, GDP, economic crisis, unemployment, pandemic, government’s role in economy, presidential candidates political and economic positions
Received
12.08.2020
Date of publication
25.09.2020
Number of purchasers
25
Views
5352
Readers community rating
0.0 (0 votes)
Previous versions
S207054760011707-4-1 Дата внесения правок в статью - 20.09.2020
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References

1. World Health Organization. Data and Statistics (https://www.who.int/hivl/data/en/)

2. News Release. Gross Domestic Product 1st Quarter 2020 (Third Estimate), Corporate Profits. 1st Quarter 2020 (Revised Estimate) (http://bea.gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-1st-quarter-2020-third-estimate-corporate-profits-1st-quarter-2020)

3. BEA. Bureau of Economic Analyses. News Release. Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits, Second Quarter-2020 (Preliminary Estimate) (http://bea/gov/news/2020/gross-domestic-product-2nd-quartter-2020-second-estimate-corporate-profits-second-quarter-2020)

4. US Economy Faces Long-Term Recovery. CBO Says. New York Times. July 1, 2020 (nytimes.com/2020/06/01/business/stock-market.html)

5. US Economic Outlook for 2020 and Beyond. The Balance (https://www. thebalance.com/us-economic-outlook-3305669#:test=8%EF%BB%BF)

6. Jeremy Weltman ECK Survey Results Q2 2020. Covid Crisis increases the economic and Political Risks for US, Europe and EM. (Euromoney.com/articlt/b1mfm.2pdfwr765/ecr-survey-results-g2-2020-covid-crisis-increase-the-economic-and-political-rishs-for-us-japan-europe-and-ems); Congressional Budget Office. Interim Economic Projections for 2020 and 2021 (Cbo.gov/publications/56368)

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