The article analyzes the genesis and development of the military nuclear program of India and assesses the current state and prospects for its nuclear forces.

It is observed that the military nuclear program of India began in the late 1960s. By this time, the necessary scientific and industrial infrastructure was created, allowing for the development of nuclear weapons. The fact that China possessed the atomic bomb by 1964 and tested a thermonuclear warhead in 1966 served as a trigger that launched India’s military nuclear program. This forced the then leadership of India, led by Prime Minister Indira Gandhi, to decide on a nuclear test, to demonstrate to the world that the country is capable of creating nuclear weapons. On May 18, 1974, India detonated a nuclear explosive device at the Pokhran polygon. New Delhi said it was a “peaceful nuclear explosion” and that India had no intention of producing nuclear weapons.

The promise given by the leadership of India was being fulfilled for some time. But in May 1979, New Delhi revised their attitude towards the possession of nuclear weapons, since it became known that Pakistan, with the assistance of China, began to create its own nuclear weapons, and by 1987 it already had an atomic bomb. The situation has forced India to begin production of nuclear weapons, however, in very limited numbers.

After the collapse of the USSR in December 1991, the international situation and the military-political situation in the South Asian region changed dramatically. New Delhi came to the conclusion that in the near future India could become one of the major players on the world stage. To reinforce these claims, steps towards real nuclear capability were undertaken. In May 1998, India conducted a series of five nuclear tests, after which then-Prime Minister Atal Vajpayee stated that "India is now a nuclear-weapon state."

In January 2003, New Delhi published the nuclear doctrine of India, which provided for the establishment of the Nuclear Command Authority, headed by the Prime Minister and the Command of the Strategic Forces, and also identified the need to create and maintain the country's nuclear forces at the minimal necessary level. The required funds for the development of the nuclear industry were allocated in the budget of India, which allowed it to increase the rate of production of nuclear warheads. By the end of 2005, India’s nuclear arsenal had grown to 44 nuclear warheads, and by the beginning of 2020 it had exceeded 150 nuclear warheads.

However, today the Indian nuclear industry still has limited capabilities for the production of nuclear warheads (no more than seven units per year), which indicates that the establishment of the Indian military nuclear program has not yet been completed. This may happen by the early 2030s after the implementation of the Indian government plans to construct new facilities for weapons-grade fissile materials production.

As for the nuclear forces of India, this country currently possesses a nuclear triad, including air, land and sea components.

The most advanced component of India’s nuclear capabilities is the air component. It consists of two squadrons of Mirage 2000N fighter-bombers (32 aircraft) and one squadron of Jaguar IS fighter-bombers (16 aircraft) capable of carrying one nuclear bomb each.

The ground component of India’s nuclear triad consists of mobile missile systems with tactical (up to 500 km), short-range (500-1000 km) and intermediate range (1000-5000 km) ballistic missiles. In 2018, 24 launchers with a short-range Prithvi-II nuclear missile, 20 launchers with a short-range Agni-I nuclear missile, 18 launchers with Agni-II and Agni III medium range nuclear missiles, were deployed in India’s nuclear forces.

The naval component of the Indian nuclear triad, consists of one Arihant SSBN with 12 K-15 ballistic missiles with a firing range of up to 750 km and two Sukanya-class patrol vessels with one launcher for the Dhanush nuclear ballistic missile with a firing range of 350- 400 km (two units for each ship).

The prospects for the development of India’s nuclear forces are connected both with increasing the number of launchers and the introduction of new nuclear weapons.

In 2016, a contract was signed with France to supply the Indian Air Force with 36 multifunctional fourth-generation Rafale fighters from 2019 to 2022. These aircraft will be equipped with a Nirbhay air-to-surface nuclear-powered cruise missile with a flight range of 700-1000 km. The adoption of this missile into service may happen at the turn of 2021-2022.

The flight tests of the new Agni-IV ballistic missile with a firing range of 3500-4000 km and the advanced Agni-V ballistic missile with a firing range of over 5500 km, which allows it to hit targets throughout China, are nearing completion. Both of these missiles are equipped with a nuclear warhead, their adoption is possible as early as the end of 2020. The project of the Agni-VI nuclear ballistic missile with a firing range of more than 10,000 km is under development.

As part of the implementation of the early 2000s program to construct five SSBN; in 2017, the second Arihant SSBN was launched. The third and fourth SSBNs are under construction, they are expected to be launched in 2020 and 2022 respectively. These three submarines can be transferred to the Indian Navy in 2022, 2025 and 202. respectively. They will be armed with K-4 ballistic missiles currently under development with a firing range of up to 3,500 km. The adoption of this missile is possible in 2021-2022. Efforts to create a K-5 ballistic missile with a firing range of more than 5000 km, which will be equipped with a MIRVed nuclear warhead are underway. New Delhi also announced plans to develop a K-6 ballistic missile with an even greater range.

All of the above indicates that New Delhi has taken a firm course towards raising the country's nuclear status. India’s desire to create an arsenal of nuclear weapons comparable to Chinese is clearly visible. According to some estimates, by 2030, the nuclear forces of India may include about 400 nuclear warheads and at least 300 delivery vehicles.